European polls 2024: what do the latest opinion polls say two days before?

It’s the final stretch. Ireland and the Netherlands have already started voting in the European elections; this Sunday, June 9, most European countries, including France, will follow.

As a reminder, in 2019, Marine Le Pen’s FN won 23% of the vote (and as many seats), closely followed by the Renaissance party of the presidential majority (22.4% of the vote and 23 seats as well). Just behind came the Greens (13 seats), the Union of the Right and the Center (8 seats) and La France Insoumise (6 seats). Two days before the election, the latest polls have revealed the voting intentions of the French this Sunday, as shown in our infographic below.

At Ipsos, less than one in two French people will vote

While the National Rally list led by Jordan Bardella is in the lead in all opinion polls, it is precisely shown at 32% by the Ipsos/Radio France/Le Parisien poll published yesterday.

The RN president is followed by Valérie Hayer and the Renaissance list at 15.5%, closely followed by the 13.5% of Raphaël Glucksmann and the PS list. The fourth position is occupied by France Insoumise with 9% of voting intentions, closely followed by the Republicans of François-Xavier Bellamy (7%) neck and neck with the Greens of Marie Toussaint (6%) and Reconquête, the list of Marion Maréchal (5.5%). According to this Ipsos poll, the gap is widening ever wider between the National Rally and its direct competitors.

Turnout is estimated at 48%, compared to 50.1% for the last European elections in 2019, which showed their highest level of participation since 1994. But France was not alone, Le Monde reminds us: all European countries experienced this rebound in the electorate five years ago, particularly Spain and Poland (with a 20-point increase compared to the 2014 election).

Finally, the Ipsos poll also reveals the key issues for French voters: purchasing power is in the lead (50%) ahead of immigration (35%), the health system (29%), environmental protection (24%) and far behind, the Gaza issue (8%).

Jordan Bardella even more to his advantage in the Cnews poll

In an Opinionway poll published this morning, the Journal du Dimanche, in association with CNews and Europe 1, show essentially identical trends. RN leader Jordan Bardella is even more at an advantage (33% against 29% at the beginning of April). With such a score, the far-right candidate would break a record since 1984 (no camp has exceeded 29% since that date, with the exception of the 43% of Simone Veil’s list).

Valérie Hayer (15%) and Raphaël Glucksmann (13%) still close the podium. Behind them come the Les Républicains list at 7% and Marion Maréchal’s Reconquête party tied with Europe Écologie les Verts at 6%.

The risk of seeing Europe Écologie Les Verts ejected from the European Parliament?
Raphaël Glucksmann is a little further behind (12%) in the leading pack given by the Huffington Post poll (YouGov institute), still behind Jordan Bardella (32%) and Valérie Hayer (15%). François-Xavier Bellamy (Les Républicains) and Manon Aubry (LFI) are both stagnating at 6%.

But it is the situation of EELV that is most worrying, according to the HuffPost poll which evokes a “red alert for the Greens”. With barely 4% of voting intentions, Marie Toussaint herself fears “the nightmare scenario” of her camp disappearing from the European Parliament where it has been present for 40 years. In total, France must fill 81 seats in the European Parliament, currently contested by 38 candidate lists, and distributed proportionally according to the results of this election, which will definitely depend on the turnout.

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