The diplomat who came in from the cold: from Kremlin plots to Putin’s succession, the recent work by Vladimir Fédorovski was published on October 12, by Balland. The career of this historian and writer of Russian-Ukrainian origin was directly marked by the intrigues of Russian power. He was also “a man of the shadows”. We discuss with him the diplomatic and geopolitical situation affecting Europe.
franceinfo: Vladimir Fédorovski between the war in Ukraine, Karabakh, with Azerbaijan and Armenia, Israel, and also the position of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, what is your vision of this whole?
Vladimir Fédorovski: I think we are entering a new era. In the book, I recount my experience of managing previous crises. At the time, people avoided putting their opponent’s back against the wall. Today, everyone has their backs against the wall, and we are witnessing a sort of escalation, but in reality, it is a sort of divide in the world, on the one hand, the West, dominated by the United States, and on the other hand, a new alliance, quite astonishing, are the BRICS, essentially Russia, China of course, and perhaps even tomorrow, Iran – the BRICS are Brazil, Russia , India, China, Turkey – BRICS this year changed the geopolitical situation.
Your vision today regarding the Middle East and Europe?
My first thought obviously goes to the hostages who are suffering, these innocent people. It must be said that today we are witnessing a sort of tension which will last, in my opinion. And this should not be underestimated. And the slide towards escalation is not excluded. But more than ever, it will strengthen this emerging triangle: China, Iran and Russia.
Where is Europe in all this?
Europe?… There is a certain courage from President Macron, he has developed a sort of speech addressed to everyone. Because the main concern now for all of us is to avoid total escalation, because it can inflame the Caucasus, I have a special thought for the Armenians, and no one controls the situation, it’s worse than the Cold War, but for Europe, I think it must reconnect with the spirit of diplomacy, and diplomacy has, in recent times, been almost killed. I really hope that France will play a leading role in this regard.
Today for Europe, in the Balkans, these are two very important political situations: Bosnia-Herzegovina is on the verge of explosion, even implosion, as for Serbia, which says Serbia, of course, says Kosovo , President Vucic called early elections. In your opinion, can the Balkans ignite and create a new front in Europe?
Exactly, there are several fronts that are open, and that changes the situation. It’s Ukraine, it’s the Middle East, of course, that can burst into flames. Taiwan, and the Balkans… You understand, the ingredients of escalation are there, we must also do everything to understand that escalation does not benefit anyone.
And Erdogan in all this?
Erdogan is very clever. It must be said that he completely succeeded in breaking through in the Caucasus, thanks to the Azeris, but now he is really playing a much more rigorous, much more anti-Western rhetoric. Turkey’s evolution is its own evolution and it predicts a new divide in the world.
Isn’t it time for Europe to look towards Central Asia?
More than ever. I think that in the context where there are several fronts and in my opinion, active diplomacy must renew dialogue.
Vladimir Fédorovski, The diplomat who came from the cold is published by Balland.
This article is originally published on francetvinfo.fr