Southeast Asian foreign ministers are meeting this week in Laos with the civil war in Burma and Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea on the agenda, as well as a meeting between the heads of American diplomacy and Chinese on the sidelines of the meeting.
The annual meeting of the ten member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) begins Thursday in Vientiane and is scheduled to last three days.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on the sidelines of the event and “discuss the importance of adhering to international law in the South China Sea”, according to the US State Department.
China claims almost all of this important trade route, and ignores an international arbitration which proved it wrong in 2016.
It patrols hundreds of coast guard and navy vessels there and has transformed several reefs into militarized artificial islands.
ASEAN ministers are expected to issue a joint statement after their meeting on Thursday.
According to a provisional document seen by AFP, some ministers expressed concerns about “serious incidents” in the area “which have eroded confidence, increased tensions and risk compromising peace, security and stability In the region”.
A remote outpost on Second Thomas Atoll has been at the center of clashes between Chinese and Philippine ships in recent months as Beijing steps up efforts to assert its claims to the area.
On Sunday, the two countries announced that they had agreed to an “interim arrangement” for the resupply of Philippine troops.
Chinese pretensions could push certain countries in the regional bloc to move closer to the United States, according to a diplomat who will participate in the discussions in Vientiane.
The region is preparing for the possibility of a Donald Trump victory in the November elections. Southeast Asian diplomats “have more or less an idea of how to deal with him […]. They know what his trigger points are, what he likes, what he doesn’t like ” he said, on condition of anonymity.
Burmese junta weakened
Another burning issue discussed in Vientiane: Burma where the junta suffers defeat after defeat in the face of ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy forces fighting it.
Since October 2021, the generals have been sidelined from Asean summits and ministerial meetings and refused to send a junior representative. But in January, a senior official from Naypyidaw participated in a “retreat” of foreign ministers in Laos, the country which holds the rotating annual presidency. It should be the same this week.
This even timid desire to return to the discussion table is a “sign of the weakening of the junta”, a diplomat who will participate in the talks told AFP, on condition of anonymity.
Burma could “become a failed state”, he warned, adding that “the only way for this nation to move forward is to hold national elections and install an elected government.”
Diplomatic efforts by Burma’s neighbors to find a solution to the crisis have so far yielded no tangible results.
Asean defends a five-point peace plan dating from 2021 that the junta signed but never implemented.
In the provisional final statement that AFP was able to consult, the ministers plan to “strongly condemn” the continuation of the violence.
The Burmese crisis is a subject of discord within Asean itself, with certain countries such as Indonesia or the Philippines demanding severe measures, others such as Thailand leading bilateral discussions with the junta.
This article is originally published on french.ahram.org.eg
