The Next 48 Hours Will Define Russia’s New Status

Moscow is heading for a civil war, a transfer of power or a temporary respite, according to Mykhaïlo Podoliak, adviser to the Ukrainian president. Westerners are monitoring the situation “very carefully”.

kyiv sees in the outbreak of the Wagner Group rebellion “the beginning” of a major crisis in Russia. The mutiny of the Wagner group illustrates the weakness of the country, plunged into “evil and chaos”, estimated the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, adding that Ukraine protected the rest of Europe. “Russia’s weakness is obvious. Total weakness. It is equally obvious that Ukraine is capable of protecting Europe against contamination by evil and Russian chaos.”

“It’s only the beginning in Russia,” tweeted Mykhailo Podoliak, adviser to the Ukrainian president. “The division between the elites is too obvious. Agreeing and pretending that everything is settled, it will not work.

“The next 48 hours will define Russia’s new status: either a civil war, or a negotiated handover, or a temporary respite before the next phase of the fall of Putin’s regime,” he said. “All essential stakeholders are in the process of choosing sides. For the moment, deafening silence from the elites in Russia…”

Russia’s internal problem for the EU

In addition, the West is following the situation in Russia very closely, stressing that the next few hours will be crucial, after the rebellion of the leader of the Wagner militia Evgueni Prigojine against the Russian regular troops.

“We are monitoring the situation carefully,” said a spokeswoman for the head of diplomacy of the European Union, Josep Borrell. “We are continuing our consultations with Member States and are also in contact with our partners. What we are witnessing is an internal Russian problem.”

On the Swiss side, the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs is “in permanent contact” with its embassy in Moscow to “assess the situation”. Travel to Russia is “not recommended”, as well as non-urgent stays.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called on ‘all parties to be responsible and to protect civilians’, adding that he was following the situation ‘closely’ and would speak with some of the UK’s allies during the day. “In the hours to come, the loyalty of the Russian security forces, in particular the National Guard, will be essential for the outcome of the crisis. This represents the biggest challenge to the Russian state in recent times,” the UK MoD tweeted.

For Berlin, it is necessary to “avoid the city center of Moscow”

If Paris, Rome and Berlin are following the situation “closely”, French President Emmanuel Macron “remains focused on supporting Ukraine”, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani does not believe that there is up to here no concern for his compatriots living in Russia and his German counterpart, he recommends “avoiding downtown Moscow until further notice”.

Finally, Norway “advises against all travel to Russia”, while Denmark is content to recommend to its citizens currently in Russia “to stay inside”.

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